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Technical Check on Markets: 09.06.2022

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Beena Shah
Technical Check on Markets: 09.06.2022

India VIX has been on a downward trajectory in the recent past. It is important to note that with the RBI event out of the way, VIX cooled off quite a bit yesterday. The market weakness of the last few days has not had an impact on it. So in a way it suggests that fear does not exist despite the price weakness on the index charts and the FII F&O positioning.


Nifty - The Market's Mind


The market seems to be making up its mind. In the last 10 days we have seen both lower lows and higher highs but it did not lead to a trend. The averages have acted as a huge barrier, which is not encouraging. Now we could be on the verge of a trend. If yesterday’s low does get taken out on a closing basis, then we will have to believe that the bears have won and we talk of levels close to 15900-16000 again. On the other hand, a turn from here brings bullishness.


1. Sometimes doing nothing and staying quiet is also a position or a commitment. When the weather is rough there is no point sailing. The market trend in the last 7-10 days has been just that. 


2. We have seen random moves within a 300-point range with both the bulls and bears taking turns. Nifty lacks a short-term trend. However, this difficult/challenging phase should lead to a large trending move. 


3. We are quite sure that in a month from now we should be either 5% lower or higher from here. This range bound phase should be in the last stages. 


4. While yesterday’s action is discouraging we are not giving up the bullish thesis yet. Sustaining below 16360 for another day would give the bears the edge and hence we stay watchful. 


5. We continue to believe that we are in a stock specific market. 


6. The area around 16530 is now the immediate resistance. 


7. Bank Nifty has huge support in the 34600-700 area. This decides the trend ahead.


8. Summary View: Nifty is right at the lower end of the trading range. The next couple of days should make or break the trend for the month of June.

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Beena Shah
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