In order to avoid statistical traps caused by non-linearities in our data, we only use non-parametric statistics to analyze the relationship between RCA and economic growth. Only countries with more than 100 publications in 1982 or more than 200 in 1996 and with GDP data for the year required in the World Bank database are considered.
The economic wealth is estimated using the per capita gross national product (GDP) calculated by the World Bank (per capita GDP calculated based on the 2005 constant U.S. dollar purchasing power parity). The percentage of wealth growth is estimated by calculating the perceptual growth of gdp in a given period.
The current analysis uses countries with more than 100 publications recorded by Scopus in 1998 and GDP data provided by the World Bank. Only 101 countries meet these standards.
Scientific chemical productivity is a better predictor of a country’s economic wealth and human development than many commonly used indexes tracked by other variables. As can be seen from Figure 1, the number of publications per capita in a country (publications) is the index closest to per capita GDP and the Human Development Index (HDI). "Publications" have a much higher correlation with a country's per capita wealth than any other test indicator.
The high-level administrations of developed countries publish more in some disciplines, while the poorer countries' administrations publish relatively low in other disciplines. The table shows the associations between RCAs or related research work in each discipline and the feasible publication records of each country in 2010, which is the same as the GDP of that year. The chart shows that richer countries publish more papers, so poorer countries may invest more research efforts in neuroscience, computer science, and psychology; poorer countries publish more papers in agriculture and multidisciplinary science. Research more.
The correlation between the RCA published in scientific disciplines in 2000 and the economic growth in subsequent years, estimated as the percentage of GDP growth during 2000-2005, shows different results. Here, related research in physics and chemistry is the best predictor of future economic growth, while efforts in medicine and psychology are the best predictor of poor future economic growth. The partial (but certainly not all) correlation between the relative productivity of the physical and chemical sciences and future economic growth can be explained by another correlation with the development of technological knowledge. The economic complexity index calculated by Hausmann et al. reflects some but not all of the correlation patterns between RCS in scientific publications and gdp growth in the next five years. For example, the RCA of physics and materials science is positively correlated with the two, the economic complexity index is reached in 8 years, and the economic growth is reached in 5 years. However, RCA in chemistry is not significantly correlated with economic complexity, but is positively correlated with economic growth. For example, RCA in computer science, health, biochemistry, and neuroscience is related to future economic complexity, but has nothing to do with economic growth.
A more refined time analysis showed that the highest correlation scores were obtained 5 to 7 years after evaluating the relevant research work in 2000. This will also occur if you use a different database (such as The Web of Science) and older data. Kind of mode. In 1982 (data from 64 countries), among the 247 regions used by Web of Science to classify journals, few produced a statistically significant positive correlation between the GDP growth in the following years and the RCA of publications in specific regions (p<0.01). These studies include: Asian Studies (Spearman Correlation = 0.54), Physics, Fluids and Plasma (0.51), Engineering, Manufacturing (0.42), Andrology (0.39), Social Work (0.37), Engineering, Industry (0.34), physics, particles and fields (0.34). In 1987 (data for 70 countries), none of these 247 regions was associated with subsequent GDP growth. In 1992 (data from 88 countries), only computer science, theory and method (0.31), economics (0.30) and engineering, manufacturing (0.28) were significantly related to the GDP growth in the following five years. In other words, even though in the decades of 1980 and 1990, Web of Science compiled information about publications based on a very small number of selective journals from a small group of countries. , But their data shows a familiar trend: Countries with relatively high investments in physics and engineering are more likely to achieve higher economic growth in the next few years.
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